Technical update + options strategy
Bitcoi and stocks...
GN gentlemen,
Bitcoin has fallen sharply and hit my targets in the short and mid term. Further downside from here is not impossible but the reward to risk of holding shorts or trying to short further down is not good.
I suggest starting a DCA plan from here until June 2026.
How and what to buy?
Main L1s: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, HYPE, Monad, maybe MegaETH
Revenue generating protocols that do buybacks that exceed supply unlocks*
It might be interest to participate from Coinbase’s ICOs going forward.
*The list:
AAVEUSDT,BONKUSDT,BTCUSD,ENAUSDT,ETHFIUSDT,ETHUSDT,HYPEUSDT,JUPUSDT,KAITOUSDT,METUSDT,PENDLEUSDT,PUMPUSDT,RAYUSDT,SKYUSDT,SOLUSDT,SYRUPUSDT,UNIUSDT,ZROUSDTBuying 2.66% per week (to allocate 80% of the capital in crypto to this) gives us time to DCA into holding the assets we are interested on long term, at a good average entry, without worrying of volatility of the coming months.
There’s still some chance of further downside but it is increasingly higher risk to keep shorting, the lower price goes, so I prefer to start accumulating gradually.
Stocks
The S&P500 index managed to tag the bearish target in the daily timeframe, time for the bearish signal that sent it here will expire next Monday, which could kickstart a mean reversion move to the upside.
Fading consensus: a case study using options
A systematic options strategy that exploits the structural forecasting bias of Wall St.
Why this Strategy Exists
Every December, Wall Street publishes its S&P 500 year-end targets.
They look precise, scientific… authoritative.
In reality, they are:
directionally OK,
magnitude-wise almost always too conservative,
and consistently too narrow in distribution (they underestimate volatility).
The result?
Over the last decade, the S&P didn’t move a polite +8–10% like the strategists predicted.
It delivered violent upside years, violent downside years, and almost no “calm finishes” near their forecasts.
So I built a strategy that weaponizes this structural forecasting error.
The Strategy
Each January:
1️⃣ Fade the consensus target
Sell an iron condor centered around the Wall St year-end forecast:
Short call & put at target
Long wings at ±15%
This bets that the market won’t land neatly on the consensus estimate.
2️⃣ But also bet on an explosive move IN the forecast direction
Wall St is usually right about direction, but wrong about magnitude.
So:
If consensus is bullish, buy a tail call +20% above target.
If consensus is bearish, buy a tail put –20% below target.
This results in being short vol with a directional convex hedge.
Performance (simplified backtest 2015–2024)
Using a consistent Black-Scholes setup (20% IV, 2% rates, yearly expiry), the hybrid strategy dramatically outperformed a simple condor:
